U.S. Presidential Election Poll Conducted by WCU Statistics Professor & Statistic Students Indicates College Students Have Enthusiastic Voting Intentions
PA college voter turnout for the 2024 U.S. presidential election is predicted to be
historic in one of the most highly contested battleground states, and students’ votes
could help define the outcome of one of the most contentious elections ever. West
Chester University Assistant Professor of Statistics Laura Pyott and the statistics
students in her “Statistical Methods for Political Polling” class decided to, once
again, poll a random sample of students attending public higher education institutions
in Pennsylvania. The students’ voting intentions for the 2024 U.S. presidential election
are particularly compelling.
A Qualtrics survey was emailed to a random sample of more than 20,000 students who are at least 18 years old, are permanent residents of Pennsylvania, and attend one of the public higher education institutions. For the first time, all 10 schools opted to participate in an election poll; a total of 1,048 college students responded.
According to the 2024 Ram Poll, college students are enthusiastic about the 2024 U.S. presidential election with nearly 95% stating they will probably or certainly vote, or that they have already voted; students who responded hail from 64 of 67 PA counties. This is the highest enthusiasm metric the Ram Poll has ever seen (89% in 2022 and 86% in 2020). Of the undergraduate students polled, 66% say they will vote in person, while 84% will vote at their home address.
For the U.S. Presidential Election:
- 60% of the undergraduate students polled favor Vice President Kamala Harris (D).
- 33% of the undergraduate students polled favor former President Donald Trump (R).
- 3% chose “other.”
- 4% said “do not know.”
- When students who responded “do not know” were challenged to choose a presidential candidate, the results changed to 62% in favor of Harris, 33% for Trump, and 3% “other” with 2% still undecided.
For the U.S. Senator Election:
- 53% of the undergraduate students polled favor Senator Bob Casey (D).
- 26% of the undergraduate students polled favor Dave McCormick (R).
- 19% said “do not know.”
- When students who responded “do not know” were challenged to choose a senatorial candidate, the results changed to 56% in favor of Casey, 29% for McCormick, and 13% still undecided.
Top “Very Important” Issues For Students’ Election Day Choices:
- Education (74%)
- Healthcare (69%)
- Economy (68%)
- Abortion (65%)
Students Ranked Their “Most Important Issues”:
- Economy (22%)
- Abortion (17%)
- Education (9%)
- Healthcare (9%)
- Climate Change (8%)
Thoughts About Student Debt:
- 57% of the undergraduate students reported they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports policies to cancel student debt compared to 9% who were less likely to do so.
- 58% of students believe the government should do more to help students pay off debt.
- 21% believe addressing student debt is not under the government’s purview.
Thoughts About Election Integrity:
- 80% of the undergraduate students reported feeling somewhat (42%) or very confident (38%) about the integrity of the election outcome.
- 16% of the undergraduate students reported not being too confident about the integrity of the election outcome.
- 4% of the undergraduate students expressed no confidence about the integrity of the election outcome.
- The above responses were shown to reflect party identity. As such, 96% of Democrat respondents were somewhat or very confident in election outcomes, compared to 56% of Republicans who were somewhat or very confident in election outcomes.
In addition to West Chester University Assistant Professor of Statistics Laura Pyott, the third statewide election poll for undergraduates was conducted by West Chester University student researchers Nicole Blackburn, Ezana Rivers, Molly Groff, Nicholas Cantando, Jeff Smarkola, Jackson Lauter, Michael Thais, and May Boucher.
Including West Chester University, the public higher education institutions polled in Pennsylvania were Cheyney University, Commonwealth University of Pennsylvania, East Stroudsburg University, Indiana University of Pennsylvania, Kutztown University, Millersville University, PennWest University, Shippensburg University, and Slippery Rock University.